| Thursday, February 01, 2007 |
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Between the end of 2002 and the end of last year, the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) emerging markets index had a total dollar return of 240 percent, or an average rise of 36 percent a year. That compares with a 73 percent total return for the Standard & Poor's 500 index and 108 percent for Japan's Nikkei.
And Michael Hartnett, the head of emerging markets strategy at Merrill Lynch, says that by historical standards, the four-year surge is still young. From late-1973 to mid-1983, US small-cap stocks rose 31 percent a year on average. In the 1970s and 1980s, Japanese stocks rallied an average 24 percent a year for 12 years.
"Emerging markets are in the midst of one of the great bull markets," he says. "Their massive savings and current account surpluses can boost economic growth and asset prices for many years to come." |
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